Apartments for Sale in Manhattan | Where to Buy to Live or Invest

Back in 2018, the number of new development apartments for sale in Manhattan was so high that there were reports that the oversupply of new development was going to tank the real estate market. Of course, that didn’t happen and, after the events that unfolded over the last few years, we are in the exact opposite situation.

We now expect that the number of new development apartments for sale in Manhattan New York in the next few years will be low (especially in prime neighborhoods) causing a supply constraint, and, as a result, putting upward pressure on housing prices from the supply side.

There are five major factors that led to this reduction of new development inventory in Manhattan. First, record home sales in 2021 and into 2022 depleted much of the excess inventory. While 2020 was a bust for New York City property sales as Covid took hold here first, once vaccines came out and developers lowered their prices, everyone wanted a home in Manhattan. Accordingly, condo sales, and new development sales, in particular, exploded.

Second, since Covid, there have been much fewer land sales even though land prices in New York NY dropped 50% since the market peak in 2018, so there is not much in the pipeline based on land sales.

Third, the law expired that allowed 421a, 421g, and J-51 tax abatements, which encouraged development by significantly reducing property taxes for developers and/or individual buyers. The expiration of these abatements make it more expensive to build. There is just no political will in NYC to provide any incentives to developers to build condos or rental buildings. Recently, we have seen projects proposed with 30% affordable housing rejected by leftist local city council members, where members are asking for a 50% (Project One45) and even 100% (World Trade Center 5) affordable housing requirement. In this environment, don’t expect much to be built in NYC.

Fourth, rental-to-condo conversions disappeared after, on August 1, 2019, New York state adopted onerous rules that penalized building owners in an attempt to protect tenants. Currently, there are virtually no condo conversion projects in the pipeline due to these new rules and none expected in the future. .

Finally, the rapid rise in construction costs due to supply chain constraints from Covid and energy price spikes caused by the Ukraine war are huge headwinds for the creation of new development inventory. Only true ultra-luxury and super-luxury projects will have enough margin to cover potential double digit increases in costs and non-luxury segment inventory just won’t get built until inflation settles down.

Given how long it takes for new development to come to market in NYC and all the headwinds against development these days, including political headwinds, Manhattan will have an inventory crunch starting within the next 5 years, especially in its most prime neighborhoods.

As of August 1st, 2022, there were only 6,000 developer units that are not in contract in Manhattan, down significantly from 2018. This represents all units that have had their offering plans approved by the NY Attorney General. Some are ready for occupancy and others won’t be ready for 2-3 years.

In the chart below, the dark purple line represents the unsold inventory by neighborhood. The light purple represents the in-contract units by neighborhood. Out of approximately 6,000 developer units in Manhattan, 500 are in-contract, and 5,500 are available for sale.

In the current inventory, ten buildings make up 40% of the total available for sale, so much of this inventory is concentrated in a few big buildings. After the below listings of New York Apartments for Sale Manhattan, we discuss the condo inventory in the pipeline for select neighborhoods.

Added condo stock is especially good for gentrifying neighborhoods like the Financial District, Two Bridges, Clinton, and the Lower East Side. Combined, these districts have 34% of the inventory in the pipeline. These are neighborhoods that traditionally haven't drawn many local primary residents.

Across Manhattan there are certain neighborhoods with a perpetually low supply of new condos, like the West Village, Tribeca and Carnegie Hill, which combined, have only 246 developer units available. Stripping away one or two buildings out of each neighborhood and one can see that there are not too many options for new development. Even the Upper West Side and Upper East Side neighborhoods have a dearth of inventory. And we don’t expect the situation in these prime neighborhoods to get much better.

Financial District

Fidi has 1,000 unsold developer units, which has come down a lot since 2018.
Only 3 Buildings represent 90% of the inventory:

One Wall Street - 530 units;
125 Greenwich - 273 units; and
Seaport Residences - 105 units.

The developer of 125 Greenwich defaulted on their loan and the building was sold at auction. The building is expected to relaunch sometime in 2023. This building is actually pretty nice in terms of design and finishes, so we hope to see it resurrected as it is already standing tall.
One Wall Street is a great office to rental conversion. This conversion will help the fabric of the neighborhood, as it will bring in Whole Foods and Lifetime Fitness.
We have seen many traditional Wall Street Companies move to Hudson Yards to Class A office towers as the World Trade Center filled up. Wall Street offices for the most part have lost their edge and we expect to see more conversions from office to residential in the future.

Midtown

Midtown has 748 unsold developer units.
The Waldorf Astoria redevelopment project makes up almost half of that number with 365 units to sell. While the finishes at the Waldorf are enviable and the service level will no doubt be superb, the project extended its delivery date (2024) which has sidelined some buyers and forced others to go with other competing projects. When completed, Waldorf will be amazing and will deliver some of the best finishes of all the apartments for sale Manhattan NYC.
Other Midtown developments include The West, which is at 47th and 11th, with 189 units (not a prime area), the ultra-luxury development Central Park Tower, with 116 units remaining, 53 W 53rd Street with 96 units remaining and the Mandarin Oriental Residences by Shvo on Fifth Avenue which has 86 remaining.
Billionaire’s Row, the 57th Street corridor, once touted as overdeveloped with excess supply has seen good absorption of inventory over the last few years as One57, 432 Park, 520 Park and 220 Central Park South are all sold out for the most part.

Prices range from $4.5K to $10K per square foot for this category of ultra-luxury apartments.
The most recent ultra-luxury buildings, Central Park Tower, 111 West 57th Street, and 53 W 53rd Street, which are stunning developments, are all faring well now that they have opened their doors and taken some price cuts.

West Chelsea

West Chelsea has 600 units of developer inventory.
Most of this inventory is split between two stunning buildings on the Hudson River that are pretty close to each other, - Cortland and One High Line.
Cortland has 135 units remaining. This building just launched sales and is stunning as it was designed by Robert A.M. Stern, who has brought NYC some of the most luxurious uptown buildings (520 Park, 15 CPW, 220 CPS, etc.), as well as Superior Ink and 70 Vestry in the Village and Tribeca, respectively.
One High Line, which has 236 units available, is relaunching in September 2022. This is an amazing project of two twisting towers along the Hudson by architect Bjarke Ingels. One High Line was developed first by HFZ which lost the project at auction after much of the construction was completed. New developers, Witkoff and Blavatnik, have taken over the project and reduced some prices.
These are two of the most interesting downtown projects right now. Once they sell out, there will be very little new development in West Chelsea for quite some time, as most of the lots have been built.
The West Chelsea neighborhood is the low rise luxury enclave where high paid Hudson Yards workers from companies like KKR, Blackstone and Morgan Stanley live. The low-rise zoning requirements in West Chelsea below 28th Street caps the number of units able to come to market and most available plots of land have already been developed and properties sold.
West Chelsea has become a surrogate neighborhood for those who want to live in the West Village, but where there is virtually no new development and few condos. The proximity to the West Village and Hudson Yards is a key factor of the neighborhood’s popularity.

Hudson Yards

Hudson Yards has 174 developer units left.
35 Hudson Yards, the flagship of Hudson Yards, makes up half of this developer inventory with 86 units left to sell.
15 Hudson Yards, which had 284 units to sell, now has 28 units remaining to sell, after selling out 90% of its inventory.
Between 15 Hudson Yards and 35 Hudson Yards, there are 400 apartments - one for each corner office in the office buildings of the Hudson Yards Eastern Yard. These buildings are readymade residential suites for the many executives that will be moving to HY and its environs, either as corporate apartments, second homes, or primary homes.
Hudson Yards was created by the Related Group. There are roughly 350 acres that are being redeveloped around Hudson Yards proper. Many office towers that house some of the most well known companies are ready to open their doors by 2023. We expect prices and rents to rise at 35 HY as these other buildings come online.
We don't expect any residential buildings at this caliber to rise from W 36th to W 42nd Streets, as the neighborhoods there will have limited appeal, given proximity to the Lincoln Tunnel and its traffic.
35 Hudson Yards is the Flagship for Related Group's Hudson Yards Project so this building was built as a ultra luxury tower similar to buildings on Billionaire's Row. The Chairman Steve Roth lives in a penthouse. HBO's Succession TV show features another penthouse.
35 Hudson Yards has dropped their prices from their original offering plan, a result of coming to market too late (after selling most of 15 HY) and then Covid hit. In some respects, the building was launched too early, as many of those corner offices in the neighborhood won’t be ready for occupancy until 2023.
35 HY was originally built to be $4,500 psf, so the buyer is getting a deal in the sense of the materials, design, quality, etc. at that level for a lower price. The interiors have the feeling of being in a Four Seasons Hotel.

Upper West Side

The Upper West Side has 373 developer units available.
One third are in 50 West 66th Street, a new ultra luxury building by Extell with amazing Central Park views. Park views start around $20M, although there are lower priced units without park views in the base of the building.
This is a very unique product for the UWS, given that it is a 70-story tower almost at Central Park West.
The rest of the units available are spread out over a bunch of projects from 60th to 96th Streets on the west side, so over a lot of area.
Stripping out 50 W 66th Street, one can see how few new development units are available for sale in such a large neighborhood.

Upper East Side

All of the Upper East Side (including Yorkville, Carnegie Hill, Lenox Hill) has only 493 new developer units available.
86 units are at 200 East 83rd Street, designed by Robert A.M. Stern, which is almost sold out but closings won’t begin until next year.
The Hayworth at 86th and Lex is back on the market with 60 remaining units after Zeckendorf took it over from Ceruzzi Properties, after the death of Ceruzzi.
The rest are spread over 28 buildings.
Much of the core UES has a high number of coops, effectively capping the level of future new development units from Fifth Avenue to Lexington Avenue. When boutique buildings launch in this neighborhood, they sell out quickly.

Greenwich Village & West Village

The Village is a rare example of a perpetual seller's market.
If you are looking for a new development sale in Manhattan NY, these neighborhoods are not the place to find such properties, as they are the only neighborhoods that have no new development and nothing in the pipeline.
Given that much of the village is landmarked, few new projects are ever developed there. Those that do get the green light, are usually on the smaller side.

Tribeca

Tribeca has only 120 developer units.
The stalled 45 Park project, which borders the Financial District has 48 of them.
A favorite among financiers, tech-savvy, & entrepreneurial types, where artists’ lofts-turned-condos and celeb-approved buildings have boosted the once-industrial area’s cachet.
Residents love the public school district, as Stuyvesant High School is located in Tribeca.
The historic fabric and low-rise zoning requirements of the neighborhood acts as a cap on future inventory, although some tall towers have popped up in the southernmost border near the world trade center.

SoHo, NoHo & Nolita

These neighborhoods have only 192 developer units available.
The bulk of these, 72 units, are at 100 Vandam and 50 units remain in Greenwich West.
Those interested in Soho home buying might consider 565 Broome, which has 22 stunning apartments remaining. 565 Broome was designed by the famous Italian architect Renzo Piano.
The historic and low-rise nature of these neighborhoods acts as a cap on future inventory.

Manhattan Apartments for Sale: Where to Buy